When the Jets have the ball: The Dolphins are ranked 4th in Total Defense. They are also ranked 4th against the pass giving up 201 yds. per game and 6.9 yds. per attempt. As far as their defense against the run, they are ranked 9th giving up 99.6 yds./game and allowing 3.7 yds. per rush. So what does this mean? LB Karlos Dansby, LB Channing Crowder, DE Kendall Langford, and CB Sean Smith were all limited and all are listed as questionable. With Dansby and Crowder not at full strength and with the weather forecast calling for rain, the Jets should run right at the Dolphins. By doing this they can get back to what they want to be "ground and pound". The team should also reverse Tomlinson's and Shonn Greene's roles. Greene should not be the primary back as he can pound the Dolphins line and their injured line backers. Tomlinson should be used on passing downs and 3rd downs and that's all. They should try to establish the run early and not abandon it. By pounding the run early it will open up the play action pass and allow Sanchez to get into a rythem. They should also take a page out of the Patriots book and allow Holmes and company do slants and short routes than run after the catch. With the weather being nasty they should not try to force anything down the field.
The Jets on Defense: The Jets are ranked 8th in total defense. They are ranked 14th against the pass giving up 218 yards/game and allowing 6.7 yds./attempt. The Jets are ranked 3rd against the rush giving up 87.5 yds./game and allowing 3.4 yds./attempt. So obviously the Jets strong point is there rushing defense. The Dolphins rushing attack has actually underachieved this year ammassing 107 yds./game. The Dolphins passing attack gains 229 yds./game. I would normally say put 8 men in the box and shut down the run but for some reason Chad Henne kills the Jets through the air. Jets DC Mike Pettine is clearly aware of this stating that "he clearly struggles against everyone, except us." Henne has a 101.7 QB rating with five touchdowns and one interception, post a 63.8% completion percentage(courtesy of Ian Begley,espn.com/new-york). That being said the Jets should not blitz and play zones, let Henne try to squeeze the ball into tight spaces. This would be the opposite of what the Jets have done against him previously. Miami's running attack does not worry me in the fact that OT Jake Long is battling a shoulder injury, T Vernon Carey is out, and Brown and Williams are not finding space to run. The Jets should also blitz very carefully, eventhough Henne will be without WR Brian Hartline, he still will have Davone Bess who is an excellent slot receiver. Brandon Marshall was listed as questionable and it is unclear whether he will play or not. Even if he does Revis is 100% healthy and will not doubt be able to shut him down. I am just worried about Cromartie covering Bess. His skills are better against straight ahead runners(such as Randy Moss) and not against speedy,shifty recievers. With all that said look for the Jets D to cure their communication issues and come out to play in this game.
Prediction: The Jets need to respond in this game in a big way. They need to play a complete game with no mental breakdowns and no turnovers. They need to dominate and restore not only the fans confidence but their own confidence. History shows this will not be a blow out either way, but the Jets will come out on top. They are a more talented team. Jets - 20, Dolphins - 13
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